Five Early Best Picture Predictions

Although the Academy Awards are not until the last Sunday of March 2022, the awards race has been in full swing since the beginning of fall, with film festivals like Telluride, Venice, and Toronto. Months later, many well-received films that premiered at these festivals finally have their theatrical releases, renewing the conversation around many awards-worthy films as they become available to wider audiences. Even though the theatrical box office is still recovering post-pandemic, movie theaters are becoming busier, and the season's critically hailed titles are drawing in modest audiences. In a time where the release calendar is still heavily bottlenecked from the lack of films put out in 2020, this fall season has an astonishing variety of titles to celebrate and appreciate, making for an exciting awards season to come in the next few months. While it is still too early to make an accurate prediction for the Best Picture winner at the 94th Academy Awards, here is a brief examination of five current releases that are likely to be in serious contention for the most sought after Oscar of the year:

The Power of the Dog - Directed by Jane Campion

Beginning its limited theatrical release this week is The Power of the Dog, directed by the long-respected auteur Jane Campion. Campion's first film since 2009, The Power of the Dog is a turn of the 20th century Revisionist Western with a sprinkling of noir-ish elements that has been beloved by critics and cinephiles alike since playing the entire film festival circuit this season (Venice, Telluride, TIFF, NYFF). Completely deposing many forms of toxic masculinity, The Power of the Dog gains narrative momentum as it pushes forward, cerebrally enticing audiences who are in tune with the film's astute DNA.

Many elements of The Power of the Dog work together to make the film successful, most prominently Campion's masterful direction. She has already earned the Silver Lion for Best Director at Venice. In addition, the film's central performances portrayed by Benedict Cumberbatch and the fresh-faced Kodi Smit-Mcphee are incredibly nuanced, both contrasting and mirroring one another through their portrayals of masculinity in a changing world. Equally vital is the supporting performance of Kirsten Dunst, a longtime talent in the world of cinema who is overdue for Oscars recognition. Finally, the film's tension-building score composed by Jonny Greenwood is a standout that will likely get much credit, boosting the film's overall strength as an awards contender.

Although The Power of the Dog has many elements working in its favor and so much critical support, it could lose steam as it is released to mainstream audiences, who could find it hard to relate to the period genre and slow pressure-cooker atmosphere Campion creates within the film. Additionally, box office figures will not be released since it is a Netflix title, making it trickier to understand how the film is doing commercially. Although its standing as a Netflix film massively expands potential viewership, The Power of the Dog works most powerfully as a theatrical experience. I can see audiences failing to be hypnotized by the film's rich story if watching at home with countless distractions from what is happening on the screen.

King Richard - Directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green

Beginning its theatrical release on November 19th, along with streaming on HBO Max, was King Richard, starring Will Smith as Richard Williams, the father of longtime tennis superstars Serena and Venus. Directed by Reinaldo Marcus Green with a screenplay by Zach Baylin, King Richard has charmed and touched audiences since premiering in Telluride, where it was voted the audience favorite of the festival (over many other films that made this list). Choosing to focus on the patriarch of the Williams family and the great lengths he made to set his daughters up for success, King Richard is an emotionally captivating film that can appeal to many target audiences. In addition, the film's impressive performances and solid direction have assisted it in maintaining a level of filmmaking integrity that has also fared well with critics.

Will Smith has received much positive praise for his portrayal of Richard Williams, being hailed as the most impressive performance of his long acting career. Adopting a Lousiana drawl and a stooping physical presence, Smith embodies this role with more emotional conviction than typically seen in his other parts, which can often leave much to be desired. As a caring father bordering on the line of a tiger dad to his five girls, Smith embodies the dynamic qualities of Williams, reflecting the depth of his own experiences and self-doubts as a lower-middle-class African American brought up in the segregated South. Another acting performance in King Richard that deserves much attention is Aunjanue Ellis' portrayal of Oracene Price, the step-mother of Venus and Serena. As a supportive wife, mother, and tennis coach, Ellis's role operates as a grounding balancing act for her husband's passionate, sometimes rash decisions. Together, these two excellent performances as the leaders of the Williams family work to successfully showcase the ways their real-life counterparts set their daughters up for great prosperity in life. Another solid takeaway from King Richard is Green's careful direction. The world has seen so many sports films in the past that follow the same stale constructions, but Green's vision breathes life into the genre that transcends other sports films and allows King Richard to appeal to a much wider audience.

While King Richard arguably has had the best audience response out of any other film mentioned in this piece, The marketing teams at Warner Bros. still have work ahead of itself to keep this movie relevant in the Oscars conversation. While the film's acting achievements have received much critical acclaim, its direction and craft have been perceived as sparser than other films in the Best Picture race. As a director, Green is less-known than filmmakers like Campion and Villeneuve, even though his work on King Richard is exceptional and very in-tune with its biographical material. In its opening weekend, the film grossed nearly $6 million domestically, better than many other franchise-less movies of 2021 but less than expected regarding its broad appeal to fans of sports, family dramas, and African American narratives. No doubt these box office figures were affected by the film's simultaneous release on HBO Max. Moving into the holiday season, King Richard should continue to make money as families often use their time together to head to the movies, which will hopefully grow the film's positive word-of-mouth praise and keep it connected to awards voters.

Belfast - Directed by Kenneth Branagh

In its third week of theatrical release, Kenneth Branagh's latest film Belfast has been a proven crowd-pleaser since winning the coveted TIFF Audience Award back in September. Said by many to be Branagh's most-successful directorial effort, Belfast is an autobiographical work that recreates the actor/filmmaker's childhood in 60's-era Belfast, a time when his family was greatly affected by the political and social unrest caused by The Troubles in Northern Ireland. With Belfast's sentimental story, it is easy to understand why audiences have been so enamored with Branagh's most-personal film yet.

As seen through the eyes of Buddy - Branagh as a child - the audience experiences the great sense of community that the little boy benefits from in Belfast and the immense love that he receives from his parents and grandparents. The childlike wonder and spirit of inquiry the film portrays can emotionally connect to mainstream audiences, serving as one of the film's greatest assets. In addition, Belfast boasts strong acting performances, specifically those of Judi Dench (no surprise) and Caitríona Balfe as the matriarchal figures of Buddy's family. The film's predominant usage of black and white cinematography could serve as Oscar bait, too, based on solid voter reactions to other films that employ this sort of photography in recent memory, including The Artist, Cold War, and of course Roma.

Although such rapturous audience reactions have followed Belfast since its premiere, the film has fared less fortunate with many critics. Attitudes concerning the film's limiting perspective, as seen through the eyes of its child protagonist, have presented that Belfast can be too emotionally manipulative and sappy, that its narrative uses its setting during The Troubles in a flimsy manner. Although Belfast does have its unique charms, it is difficult to avoid drawing comparisons between it and Alfonso Cuaron's Roma from 2018, which many critics and cinephiles have addressed. Across the board, Roma was much more positively received due to its poetic integrity and technical craft. Since Roma was such a recent film, it and Belfast may continue to be compared as the Academy Awards draw nearer.

Spencer - Directed by Pablo Larraín

After playing at Venice, Telluride, and TIFF, Pablo Larraín's Spencer was released theatrically on October 5th, accumulating a modest box office figure of nearly $9 million worldwide since then. Never the filmmaker to stick to conventional character studies, Larraín set out with screenwriter Steven Knight to create an elegiac, almost gothic romantic portrayal of Princess Diana, fictionalizing events that could have occurred during a critical time of the late icon's life. This atypical biopic has received divisive feedback from audiences and critics concerning its cerebral narrative. Still, it has been universally praised for Kristen Stewart's portrayal of Princess Di and its exquisite aesthetics.

Diana enraptured the world during her lifetime primarily due to her individuality and humanity compared to the British Royal Family. Stewart's performance in Spencer is so successful in embodying the layers of Diana's persona as a young woman, wife, and mother in accessible ways that many may never have thought possible of Stewart ten years ago. This powerful transformation is destined to land Stewart her first Oscar nomination, which will also work to elevate Spencer in the eyes of many Oscar voters. Claire Mathon's recognizable cinematography is somehow dreamy and formalist in its structure, strongly supporting Spencer's ghost story qualities and creating a visual world that can entrance viewers from the film's first frame. Spencer's excellent production design and costuming genius supplied by Jacqueline Durran (who has already won two Academy Awards for her costume design) will also increase the film's commendations in the awards race.

One of the finest assets of Spencer may be one of its most significant weaknesses in the Oscar game - the film's inherent integrity as high-art cinema. Throughout Larraín's works in both Spanish and English, he has never been a filmmaker to fall back on traditional narratives, instead choosing to often work through character studies to explore what is happening in times of social and historical trauma (thinking back to Chile's Pinochet regime in films like Tony Manero and No, JFK's assassination in Jackie). Larraín's uncompromising artistry definitely works similarly in Spencer, emphasizing the profound complications of Princess Di's headspace instead of presenting a traditional outline of her life. Looking back, Oscar voters almost always fall for the entrapments of conventional biopics; there is The Queen from 2006 and The King's Speech from 2010, two very successful Anglophilic films among voters. Since Spencer refuses to conform to such typical representations, it may face a rocky journey towards a Best Picture nomination. Still, it will definitely be backed by its strong standing in other Oscar categories.

Dune - Directed by Denis Villeneuve

After being delayed from its 2020 release, Dune has been available worldwide for two months now, finding enough commercial success for its sequel to be greenlit for a 2023 release. Director Denis Villeneuve has successfully instilled his technical skill and affinity for epic stories into his version of Dune, the second film adaptation of the celebrated 1965 novel written by Frank Herbert. Villeneuve's ambitious filmmaking tackles Dune's detailed world-building with no fear, a feat that could have quickly gone haywire in the hands of less-determined directors. Although Dune's identity as a pure sci-fi experience could alienate some Oscar voters who may not connect with the genre, the film's technical prowess across the craft categories might be enough to make it a contender for Best Picture.

Introducing audiences to the world of Dune, Villeneuve and his production teams use a mix of imagery and visual/sound effects to powerfully create the far away planets where the first part of Dune's narrative takes place. Villeneuve and the film's cinematographer Greig Fraser shot some of Earth's most dramatic, unknown landscapes to create his versions of Dune's planets - producing some of the year's most cinematic and unforgettable wide shots. In charge of Dune's score, Hans Zimmer steps away from his usual modus operandi to construct a layered composition that is almost a character in itself, especially as the film's protagonists relocate to the relatively unknown desert planet Arrakis. Dune's production design innovation works double-time to create many futuristic physical spaces and devices that fully realize the film's existence while staying faithful to its source material. Villeneuve's last two films, Blade Runner 2049 and Arrival, both scored massively among Academy voters in the crafts department, and undoubtedly so will Dune.

Although Dune boasts an all-star cast including Timothée Chalamet, Rebecca Ferguson, Oscar Isaac, Zendaya, and so many others, the performances often feel underutilized and are somewhat overshadowed by the immense scale of the film's story. All of these actors are highly skilled, but the film's at-times sluggish pace does little in servicing character growth. Because of this, Dune seems like it will be left out of the Oscar's acting nominations, weakening the film's overall chances of being nominated for Best Picture. In addition, Dune's sci-fi genre could also hinder its Best Picture prospects - historically speaking, this genre is often taken less seriously among voters, more often than not being limited only to craft categories. However, Dune's grand scale as an authentic cinematic experience could be highly celebrated compared to other Oscar years, especially in a time when audiences appreciate epic storytelling more than ever.

Potential Best Picture contenders still to come this season:

Steven Spielberg's Westside Story - December 10th

Adam Mckay's Don't Look Up - December 10th, Netflix December 24th

Guillermo Del Toro's Nightmare Alley - December 17th

Paul Thomas Anderson's Licorice Pizza - Limited Release November 26th, Everywhere December 25th